This increase accounts for a portion of the gains he made among urban voters, his share of whom increased by 9 points, from 24 to 33%. Trump’s tough policies at the border would drive Hispanics away from his candidacy, his share of the Hispanic vote jumped by 10 points, from 28 to 38%. Although many observers believed that Mr. The changing Hispanic vote is perhaps the most notable feature of the 2020 election. At the same time, he held the support of about two-thirds of whites without college degrees, and his support among white women rose from 47 to 53%. His campaign for reelection was supported by 94% of Republicans, up from 92% in 2016 by 84% of White evangelical Protestants, up from 77% and by 65% of rural voters, up from 59%. Trump’s consistent appeals to his base bore fruit. His core coalition held together, and he made a few new friends. By contrast, there was no education gap whatever among Black voters.ĭespite (or perhaps because of) non-stop controversy about his policies and personal conduct, President Trump managed to raise his share of the popular vote from 46% in 2016 to 47% in 2020. The gap in support for Biden among whites with and without college degrees was 24 points among Hispanics with and without college degrees, 14 points. The shift of educated voters continues the recent pattern of large differences between more- and less-educated voters. This total included 57% of white voters with a college degree or more, 69% of Latinos, and 92% of African Americans. or more, Biden got 61% of the vote, up from 57% in 2016. Biden’s candidacy continued the shift of educated voters towards the Democratic Party.By contrast, Biden could do no better than Clinton’s showing among women overall, and he actually lost ground among white working-class women. He even managed to raise the Democratic share of the white working-class men’s vote-the heart of the Trump coalition–to 31%, versus Clinton’s weak 23% showing. He expanded Democrats’ margin of victory among white college-educated men from 3 to 10 points. He won 48% of the male vote, up from Clinton’s 41%, and 40% of White men, compared to her 32% share. Biden regained much of the support among men that Hillary Clinton lost in 2016 while retaining her support among women.Most important, he raised the Democratic share of suburban voters by 9 points, from 45 to 54%, and among White suburban voters, from 38 to 47%. He improved on her performance among two swing religious groups-Catholics (up 5 points) and mainline Protestants (up 6). He did 10 points better than Hillary Clinton among Independents, and he doubled her showing among moderate and liberal Republicans. As his supporters for the Democratic nomination had hoped, Joe Biden appealed to the center of the electorate across party lines.(His share of the Black male vote fell from 14% in 2016 to 12% in 2020 while Biden raised the Democrats’ share from 81% to 87%.) African Americans confirmed their status as a unique group of voters for whom the contemporary Republican Party holds no discernible appeal. His support among Black women was never in doubt, but President Trump’s alleged appeal to Black men turned out to be illusory. Biden received 92% of the Black vote, statistically indistinguishable from Hillary Clinton’s 91% in 2016. Contrary to the fears of some Democrats, Biden maintained solid support among African Americans.And he received the support of 85% of Democrats who had defected to 3 rd party and independent candidates in 2016. Compared to 2016, he raised the share of moderate and conservative Democrats who voted for the Democratic nominee by 6 points, from 85 to 91%, while increasing the Democratic share of liberal Democrats from 94 to 98%. The Biden campaign reunited the Democratic Party.It helps us understand how Joe Biden was able to accomplish what Hillary Clinton did not-and why President Trump came closer to getting reelected than the pre-election surveys had predicted.įive main factors account for Biden’s success. ![]() Now, using a massive sample of “validated” voters whose participation has been independently verified, the Pew Research Center has published a detailed analysis of the 2020 presidential election. Pre-election polls systemically misjudge who is likely to vote, and exit polls conducted as voters leave the voting booths get it wrong as well. ![]() As we saw in 2016 and again in 2020, traditional survey research is finding it harder than it once was to assess presidential elections accurately.
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